Study on Quantitative Reliability Analysis by Multilevel Flow Models for Nuclear Power Plants
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摘要: 多层流模型(MFM)是一种目标导向的系统建模方法,它可以清晰地描述系统在规定的时间内和规定条件下,为实现其设计目标而具有的功能及其之间的相互关系。本文提出一种基于MFM的系统可靠性定量分析方法(MRA),可在不同抽象层次表示系统知识。模型清晰易懂、容易建立、易于修改和扩充,一次分析即可获得系统主目标和子目标的成功概率,便于系统分析和方案比较。Abstract: Multilevel Flow Models(MFM) is a goal-oriented system modeling method.MFM explicitly describes how a system performs the required functions under stated conditions for a stated period of time.This paper presents a novel system reliability analysis method based on MFM(MRA).The proposed method allows describing the system knowledge at different levels of Abstraction which makes the reliability model easy for understanding,establishing,modifying and extending.The success probabilities of all main goals and sub-goals can be available by only one-time quantitative analysis.The proposed method is suitable for the system analysis and scheme comparison for complex industrial systems such as nuclear power plants.
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