Uncertainty Analysis of Severe Accident Results with MACCS Model
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摘要: 为了考察输入参数对MACCS程序估算结果的影响程度,以某反应堆全厂断电事故为例,用拉丁超立方抽样方法分析了MACCS程序估算严重事故后果的不确定度。由于参数变化的影响,事故导致的早期阶段个人有效剂量结果,在95%置信度下,不确定度因子约为2.9;长期个人有效剂量计算结果,95%置信度下,不确定度因子约为1.7。结果表明:由于参数的不确定性引起结果的不确定度在95%置信度下不超为3。Abstract: In order to understand the effect of the input parameters on the estimation results from MACCS model,a station blackout(SBO) accident in a nuclear power plant is taken as an example,and the uncertainty of a severe accident consequence estimated by MACCS model is analyzed using the Latin hypercube sampling techniques.The results of the uncertainty analysis show that:the uncertainty factors of the early individual dose caused by the accident are all about 2.9(95% confidence limited),and the uncertainty factors of the long-term individual dose are all about 1.7(95% confidence limited).We can find that:when used to estimate the accident consequence,the MACCS code has an uncertainty within 3(95% confidence limited) caused by the input variables.
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Key words:
- MACCS code /
- Latin hypercube sampling /
- Uncertainty analysis
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