Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Off-Site Consequence of Xi’an Pulsed Reactor Nuclear Accident
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摘要: 为定量评价西安脉冲堆(XAPR)场外风险,建立XAPR核事故场外后果概率评价模型,以XAPR场区特征气象数据为输入数据,分析计算了XAPR核事故场外后果。结果表明:完整释放谱发生后,在XAPR场区100 m边界处有效剂量超过1、10 m Sv的条件概率分别约为0.652%、0.0750%;个人有效剂量超过10 m Sv的总频率小于2.20×10-9 a-1;致死癌症风险超过1×10-6的总频率小于1.89×10-6 a-1;XAPR场外个人平均癌症死亡风险满足草拟的核安全目标。XAPR场外风险极小。
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关键词:
- 西安脉冲堆(XAPR) /
- 概率安全分析 /
- 场外后果
Abstract: The emphasis of this paper lies in the quantitative estimation of off-site risk to the public from Xi’an Pulsed Reactor(XAPR). Off-site consequence model for XAPR nuclear accident was established, and the meteorology data acquired from XAPR site was used as the input parameter with probabilistic theory. The off-site risk to the public of XAPR’s radioactivity release was preliminarily analyzed in application of probabilistic safety assessment at 100 m point of XAPR boundary in radioactivity. The results demonstrate that the conditional probabilities of effective dose exceeding 1 m Sv and 10 m Sv are about 0.652% and 0.0750% respectively in the case of radioactivity release spectrum. The overall frequencies with which individual effective dose 10 m Sv is exceeded is less than 2.20×10-9 a-1, meanwhile the other overall frequency with which individual cancer fatality risk is exceeded is not greater than 1.89×10-6 a-1. Accordingly the draft safety goal of XAPR in this research is met from this quantitative risk. Our initial assessment leads to conclude that the off-site risk to the public from XAPR is extremely low and then the high safety characteristic of XAPR is proved. -
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