Quantification Method of Cognitive Error and Its Application in PSA
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摘要: 认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM)是第二代人的可靠性分析方法中的代表方法之一。以CREAM的核心思想为基础,对定量分析方法进行了改进,给出了共同绩效条件(CPC)对人的可靠性影响的量化指数。提出了用环境影响指数来定量计算情景环境迫使人的认知失误的发生概率,给出了概率安全评价(PSA)中人误概率的分析方法,并用于诊断核电站蒸汽发生器传热管破裂和蒸汽发生器隔离时的人误概率分析。Abstract: Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method （CREAM） is one of the representative second-generation human reliability analysis methods.The CREAM quantitfication analysis is improved based on the core thought of CREAM,and the performance influence index of the common performance condition （CPC） on human reliability and the context influence index which quantifies the effect of the con- text on human error are presented.A quantification method of the error probabilities for the human failure events in probability safety assess （PSA） is provided,and it is applied in the error probability analysis for the human actions in the identification and isolation of the ruptured steam generator tube of nuclear power plants.
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