用Monte Carlo方法计算HTR-10余热排出系统物理过程的失效概率

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Calculation of Physical Failure Probability of HTR-10 Residual Heat Removal System by Monte Carlo Method

1. Faculty of Material and Photoelectronic Physics, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan, Hunan, 411105, China;
2. Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

摘要: 介绍了计算物理过程失效概率的蒙特卡罗方法(Monte Carlo)。应用重要抽样蒙特卡罗方法计算了10 MW高温气冷实验堆(HTR-10)余热排出系统物理过程的失效概率,并进行了误差分析。与响应面方法的计算结果进行比较后发现,两种方法得到的计算结果数量级相同,进一步验证了以下结论:由于采用了非能动设计,HTR-10的余热排出系统的失效概率至少降低了3个数量级。
- Monte Carlo /
- HTR-10 /
- 概率安全评价 /
- 非能动系统 /
- 可靠性 /
- 重要抽样方法
Abstract: The paper introduces Monte Carlo simulation method which is used to calculate the failure probability.Importance sampling Monte Carlo method is used to get the physical process failure probability of the residual heat removal system in 10 MW high temperature gas reactor（HTR-10） and to analyze the error.By Comparing the results,we find that the result calculated by Monte Carlo method is of the same order of magnitude as the result by the response surface method.The following conclusion is further confirmed: by using the residual heat removal system,the physical process failure probability of HTR-10 is reduced by at least 3 order of magnitude.
- Monte Carlo /
- HTR-10 /
- Probability safety assessment /
- Passive system /
- Reliability /
- Impor-tance sampling method