Optimization of Preventive Maintenance Cycle Based on Experimental Feedback in Nuclear Power Plants
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摘要: 提出一种基于经验反馈的设备预防性更换方法。该方法利用专家意见获取预防性更换周期的初始值,结合核电设备的运行经验,利用贝叶斯理论进行修正,得到结合电站实际运行参数的预防性更换周期;再根据到预防性更换周期为止不发生失效的概率,对两者进行分析比较,优化设备的预防性更换周期。以核电站2种型号的仪控开关为例,说明了方法的有效性。Abstract: The preventive replacement method based on the experimental feedback was introduced.In this method,the initial preventive replacement cycle was acquired by expert votes.The preventive replacement cycle combined with the operation experience of the equipment was gained by means of Bayesian theorem.The Optimized preventive replacement cycle can be acquired by comparing the two probabilities that no fault occurs within the cycle.This method was tested on the switches which were used in Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant and the results indicated its validity.
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