Probability Analysis for External Reactor Vessel Cooling Effectiveness under Severe Accident
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摘要: 核反应堆的严重事故现象具有较大不确定性,它们影响到反应堆压力容器外水冷措施的有效性。本文应用风险导向事故分析方法,分析了堆芯熔融物在压力容器内滞留的不确定性,得到了反应堆压力容器外水冷有效性的概率分布。用VTA抽样程序的计算结果表明,在发生假想的严重事故并成功实施反应堆压力容器外水冷措施后,对于分析的8类严重事故序列,若下封头熔融池达到最终包络状态,恰希玛-2核电厂实现堆芯熔融物在压力容器内滞留的成功概率超过99%。Abstract: There are many uncertainties in severe accident phenomena which affect the effectiveness of External Reactor Vessel Cooling （ERVC） measurement. The uncertainties of In-Vessel Retention （IVR） issue are analyzed based on Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis method, and the probability distribution of ERVC effectiveness is obtained. The calculation results using VTA sampling program show that if the melt pool in lower head achieves final bounding state, the success probability of core debris IVR is over 99% for 8 kinds of severe accident sequences, supposing a postulated severe accident occurs in Chashma-2 Nuclear power plant and ERVC is performed successfully.
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