人员可靠性分析中人误概率数据的修正

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基金项目:

清华大学核研院基础研究基金(110010403)

Estimation of the Human Error Probabilities in the Human Reliability Analysis

1. Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute, 200233, China;
2. Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China;
3. Center for Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

摘要: 人误数据是人员可靠性分析(HRA)的一个非常重要的方面。应用贝叶斯(Bayesian)参数估计方法,可以利用电站实际数据、专家判断等多种数据对通用人误数据进行修正,获得能够更真实反映电站实际情况的人误数据。本文利用自编的数值计算程序,通过一些实例说明HRA中Bayesian参数估计的过程,讨论了不同修正数据对Bayesian参数估计的影响。
- 概率安全分析 /
- 贝叶斯方法 /
- 人误数据
Abstract: Human error data is an important issue of human reliability analysis (HRA). Using of Bayesian parameter estimation, which can use multiple information, such as the historical data of NPP and expert judgment data to modify the human error data, could get the human error data reflecting the real situation of NPP more truly. This paper, using the numeric compute program developed by the authors, presents some typical examples to illustrate the process of the Bayesian parameter estimation in HRA and discusses the effect of different modification data on the Bayesian parameter estimation.
- Probabilistic safety assessment /
- Bayesian method /
- Human error probability