Application of Parametric Empirical Bayes Method in Frequency Statistics of Initiating Event
-
摘要: 采用参数经验贝叶斯(PEB)方法,对国内核电机组丧失厂外电源(LOOP)始发事件(IE)频率进行统计分析,得到该始发事件频率的先验分布(总体分布)和各机组的后验分布。与其他常用方法—极大似然估计、Jeffreys无信息先验分布方法的比较表明,参数经验贝叶斯方法能够处理不同数据源,将其集合形成更大样本,在生成先验分布的过程中能够体现不同数据源的差异,在处理通用数据方面有显著优势。
-
关键词:
- 参数经验贝叶斯(PEB)方法 /
- 丧失厂外电源(LOOP) /
- 始发事件(IE) /
- 概率安全分析(PSA)
Abstract: The frequency of loss of offsite powerv（LOOP） initiating event in nuclear power plants（NPPs） in China was estimated by parametric empirical bayes（PEB） method in this paper. The prior distribution（overall distribution） of this initiating event frequency and the posterior distribution of each unit were obtained. Comparison with other commonly used methods-maximum likelihood estimate（MLE）, Jeffreys noninformative prior shows that: PEB method can handle different data sources to form a larger sample. In the process of generating a prior distribution, PEB method can reflect the differences between different data sources. Therefore, it can be considered that PEB method has significant advantages in general data processing. -
计量
- 文章访问数: 278
- HTML全文浏览量: 58
- PDF下载量: 1
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
