Calculation of Physical Failure Probability of HTR-10 Residual Heat Removal System by Monte Carlo Method

The paper introduces Monte Carlo simulation method which is used to calculate the failure probability.Importance sampling Monte Carlo method is used to get the physical process failure probability of the residual heat removal system in 10 MW high temperature gas reactor（HTR-10） and to analyze the error.By Comparing the results,we find that the result calculated by Monte Carlo method is of the same order of magnitude as the result by the response surface method.The following conclusion is further confirmed: by using the residual heat removal system,the physical process failure probability of HTR-10 is reduced by at least 3 order of magnitude.