In the progression of a severe accident sequence,the induced rupture of SG tubes is of most concern in level 2 PSA.The key factors of these phenomena are identified firstly,and then modeled in the Accident Progression Event Tree(APET) by the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Method(ROAAM).The probabilities of important nodes in these event trees are determined by the combination of hydrogen-thermal analysis and parameter sample methods.Finally,the conditional probabilities and frequencies of induced SGTR during severe accident phase are calculated.The design characteristics for reducing the risk of induced SGTR are also discussed in this paper.