Research on Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important part of nuclear power plant risk analysis. The dependence analysis of human errors is an essential part of HRA. Ignoring the dependence between human errors will lead to the underestimation of the risk level of nuclear power plants. This paper presents a model of dependence assessment based on D numbers and AHP-DEMATEL method. Firstly, the factors affecting the dependence between events are determined and their structural relationships are established, and the membership function and anchor point of the dependence degree are established for each factor. Secondly, the comprehensive weight of each factor is determined by using AHP-DEMATEL method. Finally, the dependence degree of each factor is evaluated according to the actual situation and the D numbers is constructed. And, according to the D numbers and the comprehensive weight, the total dependence degree and the reliability of the two human failure events are calculated. The validity of the model and method is verified by an example.