Uncertain Information Modeling and Processing in SPAR-H Method under Group Decision Making

Guan Xuefan; Wang Danyu; Su Xiaoyan; Xu Zhihui; Qian Hong

doi:10.13832/j.jnpe.2023.04.0148

Volume 44 Issue 4

Aug. 2023

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Article Navigation > Nuclear Power Engineering > 2023 > 44(4): 148-153

Guan Xuefan, Wang Danyu, Su Xiaoyan, Xu Zhihui, Qian Hong. Uncertain Information Modeling and Processing in SPAR-H Method under Group Decision Making[J]. Nuclear Power Engineering, 2023, 44(4): 148-153. doi: 10.13832/j.jnpe.2023.04.0148

Citation:

Guan Xuefan, Wang Danyu, Su Xiaoyan, Xu Zhihui, Qian Hong. Uncertain Information Modeling and Processing in SPAR-H Method under Group Decision Making[J]. Nuclear Power Engineering, 2023, 44(4): 148-153. doi: 10.13832/j.jnpe.2023.04.0148

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Uncertain Information Modeling and Processing in SPAR-H Method under Group Decision Making

doi: 10.13832/j.jnpe.2023.04.0148

1.
School of Automation Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai, 200090, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518172, China

Received Date: 2022-08-25
Rev Recd Date: 2022-11-15
Publish Date: 2023-08-15

Abstract

Abstract

Considering the uncertain information in Standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method and the inability to handle the assessment with multiple experts, this paper proposes a method of uncertain information modeling and processing in SPAR-H method under group decision making environment based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. Firstly, the weight of each expert is calculated based on AHP. Then, based on D-S evidence theory, uncertain information in expert opinions is described and basic belief assignment (BBA) is generated. Next, the weighted BBA is determined by considering experts’ weights. The combined BBA of evaluations is fused through Dempster combination rule, and the values of eight performance shaping factors (PSF) are generated. Finally, the final human error probability (HEP) is acquired based on the SPAR-H method. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by taking a digital nuclear power plant under shutdown and low power conditions as an example.
- Group decision making,
- SPAR-H,
- Analytic hierarchy process (AHP),
- D-S evidence theory,
- Uncertain information

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References(9)

References

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